Short Term Load Forecasting Based on SBiGRU and CEEMDAN-SBiGRU Combined Model

Abstract

With the continuous development of global science and technology industry, the demand for power is increasing, so short-term power load forecasting is particularly important. At present, a large number of load forecasting models have been applied to short-term load forecasting, but most of them ignore the error accumulation in the iterative training process. To solve this problem, this article proposes a combined measurement model which combines stacked bidirectional gated recurrent unit (SBiGRU), complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and error correction. In the first stage, SBiGRU model is established to study the time series characteristics of load series under the influence of temperature and holiday types. The error series generated in the prediction process of SBiGRU model reflects the error characteristics of load series; In the second stage, the error sequence is decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMF) components and trend components by CEEMDAN algorithm. The SBiGRU model is established again for each component to learn and predict, and the predicted values of all components are reconstructed to get the error prediction results; Finally, sum the two-stage prediction results to correct the error. The accuracy of SBiGRU-CEEMDAN-SBiGRU combination model is evaluated by two public power load data. The experimental results show that the SBiGRU-CEEMDAN-SBiGRU combination model has better accuracy and stability than the traditional model.

Keywords

• Short term load forecasting
• stacked bidirectional gated recurrent unit
• error correction
• complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise