Advancing Predictive Maintenance with PHM-ML Modeling: Optimal Covariate Weight Estimation and State Band Definition under Multi-Condition Scenarios

Abstract

The proportional hazards model (PHM) is a vital statistical procedure for condition-based maintenance that integrates age and covariates monitoring to estimate asset health and predict failure risks. However, when dealing with multi-covariate scenarios, the PHM faces interpretability challenges when it lacks coherent criteria for defining each covariate’s influence degree on the hazard rate. Hence, we proposed a comprehensive machine learning (ML) formulation with Interior Point Optimizer and gradient boosting to maximize and converge the logarithmic likelihood for estimating covariate weights, and a K-means and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) for condition state bands. Using real industrial data, this paper evaluates both clustering techniques to determine their suitability regarding reliability, remaining useful life, and asset intervention decision rules. By developing models differing in the selected covariates, the results show that although K-means and GMM produce comparable policies, GMM stands out for its robustness in cluster definition and intuitive interpretation in generating the state bands. Ultimately, as the evaluated models suggest similar policies, the novel PHM-ML demonstrates the robustness of its covariate weight estimation process, thereby strengthening the guidance for predictive maintenance decisions.

Keywords

• conditional-based maintenance
• proportional hazards model
• multi-covariate scenario
• machine learning
• conditional reliability function
• remaining useful life