Simulation of Levelized Costs of Electricity Considering Externalities

Abstract

This research presents long-term projects. Applies stochastic models using Monte Carlo simulation to identify the impact that changes have in the input parameters on the output variable (LCOEE). Uses tornado analysis to identify the impact of the input variables. The results show that; in thermoelectric coal plant, the LCOEE is more sensitive to changes in the price of CO2 emissions than discount rate. In the combined cycle, the LCOEE is most sensitive to the plant factor than CO2 emissions price, discount rate. In the nuclear power plant, the discount rate has greater impact on the LCOE than overnight cost. In contrast to previous work, this research uses Mexico’s country-risk in the discount rate. This research’s limitation is that the costs related to transmission, distribution, and backup fee are not included. Concluding that stochastic models provide useful information for decision-making by incorporating historical data and projections of the main variables that could affect the output variable (LCOEE).

Keywords

• simulación monte carlo, costo nivelado, energía eléctrica, centrales generadoras de carga base, externalidades ambientales