Estimating the Force of Infection for Dengue Virus Using Repeated Serosurveys, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Abstract

Because of limited data on dengue virus in Burkina Faso, we conducted 4 consecutive age-stratified longitudinal serologic surveys, ≈6 months apart, among persons 1–55 years of age, during June 2015–March 2017, which included a 2016 outbreak. The seroconversion rate before the serosurvey enrollment was estimated by binomial regression, taking age as the duration of exposure, and assuming constant force of infection (FOI) over age and calendar time. We calculated FOI between consecutive surveys and rate ratios for potentially associated characteristics based on seroconversion using the duration of intervals. Among 2,897 persons at enrollment, 66.3% were IgG-positive, and estimated annual FOI was 5.95%. Of 1,269 enrollees participating in all 4 serosurveys, 438 were IgG-negative at enrollment. The annualized FOI ranged from 10% to 20% (during the 2016 outbreak). Overall, we observed high FOI for dengue. These results could support decision-making about control and preventive measures for dengue.

Keywords

• Aedes mosquitoes
• Africa
• Burkina Faso
• cross reactivity
• dengue
• flaviviruses