Mitigating forage-livestock conflicts in China through economic structure transition

Abstract

Summary: China has committed to eradicating the forage-livestock conflict (FLC) by 2035 to restore degraded rangelands. This commitment is accompanied by China’s rapid socioeconomic development, highlighting the necessity to analyze the effects of socioeconomic transition on FLC changes. Here, we uncover multi-regional socioeconomic drivers of China’s FLC changes. The results show that during 2005–2015, the economic structure transition of China has cumulatively driven 24 Mt of FLC reductions. In particular, the FLC reduction driven by the final demand structure transition of pastoral provinces is three times that of non-pastoral provinces. The mitigation effects of the final demand structure transition of external regions generally decrease with increasing distance from the certain pastoral province. The FLC reduction caused by the production structure transition of non-pastoral provinces is twice that of pastoral provinces. This study highlights the significance of interregional cooperation and economic structure optimization to achieve China’s “Forage-Livestock Balance Goal 2035.” Science for society: Forage-livestock conflict (FLC) is a major anthropogenic driver of rangeland degradation in China. It poses serious threats to environmental, economic, and social sustainability due to its harmful impacts on ecosystem services, livestock development, and pastoralists’ well-being. To combat rangeland degradation, China has adopted a series of in situ FLC control measures and set a goal to eradicate FLC by 2035. Grazing in pastoral areas and associated FLCs are significantly affected by local and remote socioeconomic development. Using a numerical model that accounts for multi-regional socioeconomic changes, we find that the national economic structure transition has led to FLC reductions during 2005–2015. The final demand structure change of non-pastoral provinces and production structure change of pastoral provinces have mitigation potentials to be tapped. The outcome can support interregional cooperation and economic structure transition to achieve China’s zero-FLC goal.

Keywords

• forage-livestock conflict
• input-output analysis
• rangeland
• economic structure
• structural decomposition analysis
• consumption