Environmental Research Letters (Jan 2023)
Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values
- Takahiro Oda,
- Jun’ya Takakura,
- Longlong Tang,
- Toshichika Iizumi,
- Norihiro Itsubo,
- Haruka Ohashi,
- Masashi Kiguchi,
- Naoko Kumano,
- Kiyoshi Takahashi,
- Masahiro Tanoue,
- Makoto Tamura,
- Qian Zhou,
- Naota Hanasaki,
- Tomoko Hasegawa,
- Chan Park,
- Yasuaki Hijioka,
- Yukiko Hirabayashi,
- Shinichiro Fujimori,
- Yasushi Honda,
- Tetsuya Matsui,
- Hiroyuki Matsuda,
- Hiromune Yokoki,
- Taikan Oki
Affiliations
- Takahiro Oda
- ORCiD
- Research and Development Center, Nippon Koei Co., Ltd , Tsukuba, Japan
- Jun’ya Takakura
- ORCiD
- Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, Japan
- Longlong Tang
- ORCiD
- Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization , Tsukuba, Japan
- Toshichika Iizumi
- ORCiD
- Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization , Tsukuba, Japan
- Norihiro Itsubo
- ORCiD
- Faculty of Environmental Studies, Tokyo City University , Yokohama, Japan; Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University , Tokyo, Japan
- Haruka Ohashi
- ORCiD
- Department of Wildlife Biology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization , Tsukuba, Japan
- Masashi Kiguchi
- ORCiD
- Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo , Tokyo, Japan
- Naoko Kumano
- Graduate School of Agriculture, Ehime University , Matsuyama, Japan
- Kiyoshi Takahashi
- ORCiD
- Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, Japan
- Masahiro Tanoue
- ORCiD
- Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency , Tsukuba, Japan
- Makoto Tamura
- Global and Local Environment Co-creation Institute, Ibaraki University , Mito, Japan
- Qian Zhou
- ORCiD
- School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University , Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- Naota Hanasaki
- ORCiD
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, Japan
- Tomoko Hasegawa
- ORCiD
- College of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University , Kusatsu, Japan
- Chan Park
- ORCiD
- Department of Landscape Architecture, College of Urban Science, University of Seoul , Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yasuaki Hijioka
- ORCiD
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, Japan
- Yukiko Hirabayashi
- ORCiD
- Department of Civil Engineering, Shibaura Institute of Technology , Tokyo, Japan
- Shinichiro Fujimori
- ORCiD
- Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, Japan; Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University , Kyoto, Japan; International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, Austria
- Yasushi Honda
- ORCiD
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies , Tsukuba, Japan; Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba , Tsukuba, Japan
- Tetsuya Matsui
- ORCiD
- Center for Biodiversity and Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization , Tsukuba, Japan; Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba , Tsukuba, Japan
- Hiroyuki Matsuda
- ORCiD
- Institute for Multidisciplinary Sciences, Yokohama National University , Yokohama, Japan
- Hiromune Yokoki
- Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Ibaraki University , Hitachi, Japan
- Taikan Oki
- ORCiD
- Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo , Tokyo, Japan
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/accdee
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 18,
no. 8
p. 084026
Abstract
What will be the aggregated cost of climate change in achieving the Paris Agreement, including mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts? Several studies estimated the aggregated cost but did not always consider the critical issues. Some do not address non-market values such as biodiversity and human health, and most do not address differentiating discount rates. In this study, we estimate the aggregated cost of climate change using an integrated assessment model linked with detailed-process-based climate impact models and different discount rates for market and non-market values. The analysis reveals that a climate policy with minimal aggregated cost is sensitive to socioeconomic scenarios and the way discount rates are applied. The results elucidate that a lower discount rate to non-market value—that is, a higher estimate of future value—makes the aggregated cost of achieving the Paris Agreement economically reasonable.
Keywords
