Space-time permutation statistics application to detect cloud-to-ground lightning prone area (Case study: Pasuruan, Indonesia)

Abstract

Lightning is a natural phenomenon caused by the release of positive and negative charges occur in cumulonimbus (CB) clouds. CG lightning is a lightning that strikes from the clouds to the ground. This lightning is dangerous for human activities which can cause burns, blindness, and even temporary deafness. This research will determine the areas prone to CG lightning strikes and lightning characteristics in the city of Pasuruan. Space-time permutation scan statistics is a method used to detect prone areas by considering spatial and temporal aspects. This method merely requires case data, such as location and time without using population data. The detected prone areas will be tested for significance using Monte Carlo. It is used to determine the distribution of the sample. In this study, the Monte Carlo test for scanning window is 0.048 (p-value < 0.05), Sekargadung. Thus, making Sekargadung a hotspot for lightning-prone areas. Furthermore, the value is taken based on the highest ratio test (LRT), 11.46, which is the most likely cluster. Based on space-time permutation statistics Sekargadung is the main hotspot prone area in this case study. It has 226 strikes with the intensity of their occurrence with characteristics area dominant paddy field.

Keywords

• space-time permutatio scan
• likelihood ratio test
• hazardous areas
• cloud-to-fround
• lightning prone area