Using Data of a Lassa Fever Epidemic in Nigeria: A Mathematical Model Is Shown to Capture the Dynamics and Point to Possible Control Methods

Abstract

Lassa fever is a deadly viral illness that is endemic in some parts of West Africa, including Nigeria. A deterministic model in the form of a non-linear system of differential equations is developed to analyse the dynamics and possible control of the disease. The model is tested by fitting it to data from Nigeria’s Lassa fever outbreak using a least-squares fitting routine and the model is shown to provide a reasonable fit to the data. Parameters representing various control measures in the model are estimated using the model fitting. Important epidemiological features of the model such as the basic reproduction number (R0), the disease-free equilibrium, and the endemic equilibrium are determined and analysed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be asymptotically stable when R01. A bifurcation about R0=1 was determined using the Center Manifold Theorem. Using numerical simulations of the model future dynamics of Lassa fever disease in Nigeria are predicted and the impact of control measures on the disease determined. The use of approved rodenticides is shown to be the most effective control followed by reducing person-to-person and rodent-to-person contacts, respectively. Isolation and treatment of infected individuals are shown to be less effective when compared with the other control measures.

Keywords

• Lassa fever
• disease dynamics
• basic reproduction number
• stability analyses
• model fitting