Ambivalence and perceptions of China: Two list experiments

Abstract

Do citizens reveal their valid preferences when asked about a potential foreign threat? This study presents the results of two list experiments implemented in Taiwan, a democratic and independently ruled island that leaders in China have long vowed to reunify with the mainland. Our two experiments—conducted in March 2019 and September 2021—focus on the percentage of Taiwanese who perceive China as a “friend” and those who regard China as an “enemy.” The findings reveal that, first, the proportion of Taiwanese citizens who harbored hostile feelings toward China grew by 30% points between the two dates. In comparison, those with a more friendly perception of China declined by 18% points. Second, we detected significant misreporting or preference falsification when comparing the list experiment estimates with answers to a direct question. Third, we found evidence that the hypothesized China-ambivalent respondents are most likely to have switched their perceptions of China.