Weather, Land and Crops in the Indus Village Model: A Simulation Framework for Crop Dynamics under Environmental Variability and Climate Change in the Indus Civilisation
Andreas Angourakis,
Jennifer Bates,
Jean-Philippe Baudouin,
Alena Giesche,
Joanna R. Walker,
M. Cemre Ustunkaya,
Nathan Wright,
Ravindra Nath Singh,
Cameron A. Petrie
Affiliations
Andreas Angourakis
Institut für Archäologische Wissenschaften, Ruhr Universität Bochum, Am Bergbaumuseum 31, 44791 Bochum, Germany
Jennifer Bates
Department of Archaeology and Art History, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, Korea
Jean-Philippe Baudouin
Palaeoclimate Dynamics and Variability, Geo- und Umweltforschungszentrum (GUZ), Universität Tübingen, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz, 72074 Tübingen, Germany
Alena Giesche
Department of Geology, Colby College, Mayflower Hill Drive, Waterville, ME 04901, USA
Joanna R. Walker
Department of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3DZ, UK
M. Cemre Ustunkaya
McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3DZ, UK
Nathan Wright
Department of Archaeology, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia
Ravindra Nath Singh
Department of AIHC and Archaeology, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221005, Uttar Pradesh, India
Cameron A. Petrie
McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3DZ, UK
The start and end of the urban phase of the Indus civilization (IC; c. 2500 to 1900 BC) are often linked with climate change, specifically regarding trends in the intensity of summer and winter precipitation and its effect on the productivity of local food economies. The Indus Village is a modular agent-based model designed as a heuristic “sandbox” to investigate how IC farmers could cope with diverse and changing environments and how climate change could impact the local and regional food production levels required for maintaining urban centers. The complete model includes dedicated submodels about weather, topography, soil properties, crop dynamics, food storage and exchange, nutrition, demography, and farming decision-making. In this paper, however, we focus on presenting the parts required for generating crop dynamics, including the submodels involved (weather, soil water, land, and crop models) and how they are combined progressively to form two integrated models (land water and land crop models). Furthermore, we describe and discuss the results of six simulation experiments, which highlight the roles of seasonality, topography, and crop diversity in understanding the potential impact of environmental variability, including climate change, in IC food economies. We conclude by discussing a broader consideration of risk and risk mitigation strategies in ancient agriculture and potential implications to the sustainability of the IC urban centres.
