Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production Optimization in Colombia: an In-depth Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

This research explores the optimization of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) production in Colombia, emphasizing economic and environmental factors. It examines feedstock availability, production technologies Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), Fischer-Tropsch (FT), and geographical considerations to determine the Minimum Fuel Selling Price (MFSP) of SAF. The environmental analysis employs a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), considering CO2 emissions at each value chain step with an energy allocation factor for equitable carbon footprint distribution. Results highlight increased SAF demand in urban centers, necessitating diverse biomass sourcing. Fischer-Tropsch proves efficient but with high energy requirements impacting costs, while Alcohol-to-Jet offers an alternative leveraging existing bioethanol facilities. The study emphasizes data sensitivity importance, addressing limitations and showcasing 0.072 USD/L change for 1% allocation change and 0.03 USD per liter for 1% conversion drop in Gas-to-Liquid Fuel, and 0.04 USD/L for allocation and 0.1 USD/L for 1% conversion drop in Alcohol-to-Jet. Compared to prior work, this research provides detailed economic and environmental insights, extending analysis depth and acknowledging limitations, thereby enhancing research comprehensiveness and applicability.