Adaptive operation of a reservoir in climate change condition: a case study of Maroon Dam in Iran

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to investigate the climate change impacts in Maroon Basin, Iran. To investigate the impacts of climate change on rainfall, temperature, and inflow in Maroon Dam, a simulation of four general circulation models (GCMs) was done in three future periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080. The results showed that the projected increased temperature would significantly reduce the runoff in the basin, despite the projected increase in rainfall. The most significant decrease of the average inflow to the Maroon Dam Reservoir in the near future of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in March 24 and 26.4%, the middle future in March 25.4 and 29%, and the far future in March 27 and 30.6%, respectively, is predicted. Also, the MODSIM model simulation results showed that the Maroon Dam Reservoir would face a water resources shortage in the future to provide maximum demands. The average water supply reliability in climate change scenarios showed that the maximum water supply of 85% in the period 2021–2040 and the minimum of 80.4% in 2061–2080 would occur in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. HIGHLIGHTS To plan for water resources allocation to demands in the Maroon Basin affected by climate change, a combination of SWAT and MODSIM models was used.; It was found that the RCP8.5 scenario will have the most severe water stress and the worst allocation conditions.; Add-on of a water management model to a hydrological model results in a powerful simulation tool that can serve for sustainable river basin management.;

Keywords

• climate change
• modsim
• optimal reservoir operation
• reliability
• streamflow
• swat
• water supply