Mortality projection using two probabilistic models. Applications and limitations.

Abstract

This paper is focused on Lee-Carter Model and Functional Data Model, both of which were de veloped in the field of Statistics. These models are applied in order to carry out the projection of mortality and life expectancies at birth on three departments of the province of Córdoba (Argen tina) from 2020 to 2040. The strengths and weakness of said models are also analyzed. In order to do that, data from Vital Statistics and National Census in Argentina were used. Moreover, there is reference to the relationship between Demography and Statistics as well.

Keywords

• demographic.
• projections
• probabilistic-models
• mortality