Empirical α–β runout modelling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees

Abstract

A variation in the α−β model which is a regression model that allows a deterministic prediction of the extreme runout to be expected in a given path, was applied for calculating avalanche runout in the Catalan Pyrenees. Present knowledge of major avalanche activity in this region and current mapping tools were used. The model was derived using a dataset of 97 ‘extreme’ avalanches that occurred from the end of 19th century to the beginning of 21st century. A multiple linear regression model was obtained using three independent variables: inclination of the avalanche path, horizontal length and area of the starting zone, with a good fit of the function (R2 = 0.81). A larger starting zone increases the runout and a larger length of the path reduces the runout. The new updated equation predicts avalanche runout for a return period of ~100 years. To study which terrain variables explain the extreme values of the avalanche dataset, a comparative analysis of variables that influence a longer or shorter runout was performed. The most extreme avalanches were treated. The size of the avalanche path and the aspect of the starting zone showed certain association between avalanches with longer or shorter runouts.

Keywords

• α–β model
• avalanche
• multiple linear regression model
• Pyrenees
• runout prediction