Embracing epistemic uncertainty: a risk evaluation method for pollutants in stormwater

Abstract

In this study, we show that pollutants of emerging concern are, by nature, prone to the emergence of epistemic uncertainty. We also show that the current uncertainty quantification methods used for pollutant modelling rely almost exclusively on parameter uncertainty, which is not adequate to tackle epistemic uncertainty affecting the model structure. We, therefore, suggest a paradigm shift in the current pollutant modelling approaches by adding a term explicitly accounting for epistemic uncertainties. In a proof-of-concept, we use this approach to investigate the impact of epistemic uncertainty in the fluctuation of pollutants during wet-weather discharge (input information) on the distribution of mass of pollutants (output distributions). We found that the range of variability negatively impacts the tail of output distributions. The fluctuation time, associated with high covariance between discharge and concentration, is a major driver for the output distributions. Adapting to different levels of epistemic uncertainty, our approach helps to identify critical unknown information in the fluctuation of pollutant concentration. Such information can be used in a risk management context and to design smart monitoring campaigns. HIGHLIGHTS Current modelling approaches are not suitable for the deep epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutants of emerging concern.; Variability and fluctuation of concentration and the concentration-discharge dependency can worsen the severity of an overflow event.; Through our method for the impact of epistemic uncertainty, we suggest a paradigm shift toward the design of smart stormwater quality monitoring campaigns.;

Keywords

• epistemic uncertainty
• gaussian process
• monitoring campaign
• pollutant modelling
• urban drainage system