Prognostic tendencies in the morbidity of population of Ukraine for acute myocardial infarction by the year 2030

Abstract

Aim. Scientific substantiation of prognostic tendencies in the morbidity of population of Ukraine with acute myocardial infarction for the period by the year of 2030. Material and Methods. The statistical data of Ministry of Health of Ukraine for the period of 2000-2015 were used and processed with the help of biostatistical research methods; forecasting was carried out with the method of exponential smoothing by the Brown method using the methods of extrapolation, structural-logical analysis and deductive awareness, and the principles of system approach and system analysis. Results and Discussion. It is established that by the year the period of 2030, the AMI (І.21) among the population will be 59461 cases, which, according to the Tbpi index, will be +40,3% higher compared to the data of the base 2015 (n=42371/Р=171,8 cases of diseases per 100 thousand population of the country). The tendency towards an increase in the AMI by 2030 in comparison with 2015 is also typical for urban residents, where the level of AMI morbidity will increase (Tpg) by +118,4% (178,7 cases per 100 thousand urban residents / Апр=+43317 cases); for inhabitants of the villages - Tpg index =+159,1% (Р=153,0 cases of AMI per 100 thousand rural population / index Aai=+16144 cases); for working age population - Tpg index =+119,0% (Р=66,9 cases per 100 thousand people of working age / index Aai=+4712 cases) and the retirement age population - Tpg index =+283,8% (Р=761,1 cases of AMI per 100 thousand of population of retirement age / Aai index =+41981 cases). The analysis of direct and indirect financial expenses for medical services and rehabilitation and social consequences in the state of public health, provoked by AMI, convincingly proves their significant necessity of using different sources of financing. Conclusion. The obtained results confirm the significant burden on the state of public health of the probable growth by the year of 2030 of AMI morbidity among the entire population of Ukraine and in the context of urban and rural residents, working age people and people of retirement age, which will result in significant need for eventual financial costs from various sources of funding for medical services, rehabilitation, and social consequences of this disease and the urgent need for introducing preventive technologies into the primary level of medical care to minimize the mechanisms of incidence of this pathology, and its consequences [І.21] among the population of Ukraine.

Keywords

• acute myocardial infarction, morbidity, prognosis, direct and indirect financial costs, primary prevention