Risk assessment method of housing damage by typhoon disaster based on comprehensive wind and rain intensity index in Anhui Province

Abstract

Typhoon disaster factors show multiplicity, so the risk assessment of typhoon-related disasters is more difficult than other hazards. Using the typhoon precipitation and maximum wind speed data of 81 national meteorological stations and 1 035 regional automatic meteorological stations in Anhui Province, a comprehensive typhoon wind and rain intensity index is first constructed. Then the typhoon wind and rain intensity index and disaster pregnant environment impact coefficient are used to assess the risk of typhoon disasters. According to the theory of natural disaster risk assessment, the risk assessment of housing damage by typhoon disaster in Anhui Province is conducted by integrating disaster-causing hazards, exposure level and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies. The results show that Anhui Province is affected by about 1.9 typhoons per year on average, with a duration of 2-4 days. The results are as follows. The southern part and mountainous areas usually have more typhoon precipitation than the northern part and plain areas. The high-hazard region caused by typhoon disasters is mainly located in the southern mountainous and Dabie Mountains in Anhui Province, with the relatively high-hazard region in the east of Jianghuai region, and the low-hazard area in most of the regions to the north of the Huaihe River and in the northwest of Jianghuai region. The high and relatively high-risk area of housing damage caused by typhoon disasters is located in the Dabie Mountains, the eastern part of the Jianghuai region, and the southern mountainous area in Anhui Province. These areas are generally high in elevation, and easily suffer from geological disasters and mountain floods during typhoon transit. In addition, the vulnerability of houses is high, which further causes a high risk of house collapse and damage. The medium-risk region is scattered in the Huaihe River region and Jiangnan region. Lower and low-risk areas are located in the central and western parts to the north of the Huaihe River, regions along the Yangtze River, and main urban areas. Using reports on house damage caused by typhoons from different counties in Anhui Province, the zoning results are verified through spatial consistency and scatter correlation. A high degree of spatial consistency between the risk zoning results and the actual damage, with scatter correlation between them passing a significance test of 0.01, indicating that the risk zoning results of housing damage by typhoon disaster in Anhui Province are basically consistent with the actual situation.

Keywords

• typhoon disaster
• risk assessment
• hazard factor
• wind and rain intensity index
• disaster bearing body
• grid