Открытое образование (Москва) (Jun 2018)
Poly-model complex in the information and analytical environment of the Situation Centre
Abstract
Objective. The aim of this study is to develop proposals for improving decision support system, as a subsystem of information and analytical support of the Situation Centre, allowing to increase the validity, accuracy and reliability of decisions taken in modeling semi-structured systems (large-scale economic, organizational, technical or social systems), operating in conditions of significant uncertainty of the external environment and internal factors.Materials and methods. The basis of the study is a new paradigm the need for integration and convergence of various approaches and models (situation, simulation, expertise, cognitive, semiotic etc.), Software environments and technical solutions in the construction of information-analytical systems of Situation Centres. The analysis made it possible to justify the expediency of applying poly-model complexes with formalized decision-making procedures as part of decision support systems. When solving the problem of choosing the most preferable model, the main properties of models are evaluated, such as adequacy (qualitative and quantitative), simplicity and optimality, flexibility (adaptability), universality and problem orientation of the model. The joint use of heterogeneous models in the composition of a poly-model complex makes it possible to increase the accuracy and reliability of solving the problem of choosing the most preferable model of the object of investigation.Results. The necessity of integration and convergence of various approaches and models (situation, simulation, expertise, cognitive, semiotic and others) is presented in the construction of intelligent decision-making support system for the Situation Centre. Expediency description of the object under study by a set of heterogeneous and composite models with the possibility of accounting for the structural dynamics of the modeling object (organizational-technical, socio-economic systems, etc.) is shown, as well as adaptation of the modes with changes for the research object and then comparing the results obtained. An approach based on the use of poly-model complex is proposed, consisting of information analysis system of the Situation Centre that provides the synthesis of an adequate model of the study object. For this purpose, additional elements are introduced in the composition parameters and structures (redundancy) allowing for the direct use of the model to control the quality of the model, to ensure its robustness (insensitivity to changes in composition, structure and content of the original data). The conclusion. The article discusses proposals for improving the decision support system for the Situation Center, using poly-model complexes with formalized decision-making procedures. The advantage of poly-model complex is a possibility of solving the same problems with the use of different models and then comparing the results obtained, a description of the object under study by the set of heterogeneous and composite models, the possibility of taking into account the structural dynamics of the modeling object (organizational, technical, social and economic systems, and others) as well as adaptation of the model taking into account changes in the research object. The developed proposals are aimed at increasing the accuracy and reliability of the results of modeling of weakly structured systems for the validity of management decisions. The obtained results can be used to improve the scientific and methodological support of the functioning of decision support systems as an integral part of the nformation and analytical system of the Situation Centre.
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