Computational Engineering and Physical Modeling (Jan 2025)
Performance Evaluation of Earthquake Acceleration Attenuation Models (1994–2023): A Case Study of the December 5, 2024 Khuzestan Earthquake
Abstract
Understanding the accuracy of acceleration attenuation relationships is crucial for improving seismic hazard analysis and ensuring the safety of structures in earthquake-prone regions. However, existing models may not fully account for diverse site conditions and varying distances from the earthquake source, potentially leading to inaccurate seismic predictions. The goal of this research is to evaluate the performance of available acceleration attenuation relationships for Iran in predicting ground motion during significant seismic events. To achieve this, the Khuzestan Province Earthquake of December 5, 2024, was selected as a case study. The earthquake’s characteristics—depth, source, and site parameters—were first estimated. Then, 11 established acceleration attenuation relationships developed between 1994 and 2023 were applied to calculate the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and compared with actual recorded values. The findings revealed that PGA consistently decreases with increasing distance from the source. However, the performance of different attenuation relationships varied across distances and site conditions. Some models accurately predicted PGA near the fault but failed at greater distances or under different site conditions. Residual plot analysis also indicated higher precision within specific ranges. The research emphasizes the necessity of development of more accurate acceleration attenuation relations, by considering various site characteristics and implementing more advanced methods for improving the seismic hazard analysis. The obtained results could be utilized as a basis for seismic design of structures and development of localized relationships.
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