Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall and Temperature using HadCM3 and ECHAM4 Models in Gorganrood-Gharesoo Watershed

Abstract

Climate prediction demonstrates that the earth temperature has increased due to increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases. So that led to significant changes in meteorological elements. In this research the effect of climate change on rainfall and temperature at stations of Gorganrood-Gharesoo watershed for the period of 1987-2008 were examined. Daily data output by HadCM3 and ECHAM4 under scenarios of climate models using LARS-WG were downscaling and predicted for the period of 2030-2011. The results showed that based on HadCM3, the amount of rainfall 12.6, 3.3 and 3.5% and temperatures as 0.5, 0.3 and 0.31 °C respectively in the scenarios A2, B1 and A1B increased compared to the base period. Moreover, ECHAM4 model shows increases in temperature in all three scenarios. However rainfall by -11.6% under scenario B1 decreased. The results of this research could be used in water resources management planning and agriculture sector.

Keywords

• golestan province
• climate change
• downscaling
• lars-wg
• rainfall