Predictive modelling of the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in Bogotá: Methodological innovation involving different variants and computational optimisation efficiency
Oscar Espinosa,
Lisa White,
Valeria Bejarano,
Ricardo Aguas,
Duván Rincón,
Laura Mora,
Antonio Ramos,
Cristian Sanabria,
Jhonathan Rodríguez,
Nicolás Barrera,
Carlos Álvarez-Moreno,
Jorge Cortés,
Carlos Saavedra,
Adriana Robayo,
Bo Gao,
Oscar Franco
Affiliations
Oscar Espinosa
Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia; Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., Colombia; Corresponding author. Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia.
Lisa White
Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Valeria Bejarano
Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia; Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Ricardo Aguas
Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Duván Rincón
Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Laura Mora
Directorate of Synthesis and Technology Management, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Antonio Ramos
Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia; Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Cristian Sanabria
Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Jhonathan Rodríguez
Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia; Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Nicolás Barrera
Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Carlos Álvarez-Moreno
Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Jorge Cortés
Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Carlos Saavedra
Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Adriana Robayo
Executive Directorate, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Bo Gao
Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Oscar Franco
University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA
The uncertainty associated with the future of viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 poses a challenge to public health officials because of its implications for welfare, economics and population health. In this document, we develop an age-stratified epidemiological-mathematical model to predict various health outcomes, considering the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. The analytical model proposed and developed for this research is based on the approach constructed by the COVID-19 International Modelling Consortium. Following this approach, this paper innovates at the frontier of knowledge by including the various variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the Consortium model. Furthermore, for the first time in international literature, a complete compilation of the formal mathematical development of this entire quantitative model is presented. Our model accurately fits the observed historical data of new infections, cumulative mortality, symptomatic infections, hospitalisations, and Intensive Care Units admissions, capturing the waves of contagion that have occurred in Bogotá, Colombia. In turn, the prognosis obtained indicates a considerable decrease in the incidence and lethality caused by SARS-CoV-2 under current conditions, thus evidencing the effectiveness of vaccines against infection, hospitalisation, and death. This model enables the evaluation of different scenarios in response to changes in the dynamics of this infectious disease, providing information to policymakers for real-world evidence-based decision-making.
