Estimating the design flood under the influence of check dams by removing nonstationarity from the flood peak discharge series

Abstract

The construction of check dams in northwestern China has resulted in nonstationary changes in flood peak discharge series; the stationary assumption of the conventional hydrological frequency analysis is no longer satisfied. According to the characteristics of the construction and operation of check dams, the nonstationarity of flood peak discharge series are largely induced by changes in the effective runoff generation area (i.e., the basin area minus the area controlled by check dams). Knowing the power function relationship between the flood peak discharge and the basin area, we can remove the influence of the effective runoff generation area and convert the original nonstationary series into a stationary series. This de-nonstationarity method can achieve stationarity in the first and second moments simultaneously. Therefore, we can calculate the design value of the reconstructed series using the conventional frequency analysis method. According to the effective runoff generation area under design conditions, we can then obtain the corresponding design flood of the original series. We applied this method to the Mahuyu River basin to obtain the design flood under nonstationarity. Due to the consideration of the deterministic influence of check dams during the de-nonstationarity process, the uncertainty analyzed by the bootstrap method is obviously small. HIGHLIGHTS We proposed a de-nonstationary method to transform nonstationary flood peak discharge series into a stationary series.; We inferred that nonstationarity in the flood peak discharge series is caused by changes in the effective runoff generation area in the presence of check dams.; The nonstationarity is removed according to the power function relationship between the flood peak discharge and the basin area.; This de-nonstationarity method can achieve stationarity in the first and second moments simultaneously.;

Keywords

• check dam
• de-nonstationarity
• design flood
• frequency analysis
• nonstationary
• reconstruction