Bayesian generalized poisson regression analysis of number of death attributed to household air pollution and associate factors in East Africa from 2010 to 2019 and projection up to 2030

Abstract

Abstract Household air pollution, primarily resulting from the use of solid fuels like wood, coal, and kerosene, presents a major public health challenge in East Africa. This contributes to elevated levels of household air pollutants, which are linked to increased morbidity and mortality rates, particularly from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. However, the evidence of household air attributed number of death and its associated factor is limited in east Africa. Therefore this study investigated the trend of death attributed to household air pollution and associate factors in East Africa from 2010 to 2019 and projection up to 2030. This study analyzed mortality attributed to household air pollution in East Africa from 2010 to 2019 using data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Estimates. Bayesian generalized Poisson regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling were employed to examine the associated factors and project future mortality rates up to 2030 respectively. The analysis highlighted substantial disparities in mortality rates linked to household air pollution. In 2019, these rates peaked at around 134,709 deaths. Projections indicate that, if current trends persist, East Africa may experience approximately 134,709 premature deaths each year. Acute lower respiratory infections accounted for around 21% of these deaths, while chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was responsible for about 19%. The analysis identified significant disparities in mortality rates based on sex, geographic location, underlying health conditions and year. This study highlights the significant burden of mortality attributed to household air pollution from 2010 to 2019 with a concerning upward trend in deaths, particularly from 2014 to 2019 with disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. The projections indicate that the mortality burden may continue if current trend continuous. The disparities observed across different countries, clinical condition, and sex groups emphasize the need for targeted public health interventions that address the specific risks associated with household air pollution. In the future longitudinal studies and comprehensive analysis of determinants of mortality associated with household air pollution in East Africa is essential.

Keywords

• Bayesian generalized Poisson regression analysis
• Number of death
• Household air pollution
• Associate factors
• East Africa
• Projection up to 2030