Impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in urban centers in Brazil: a modeling study

Abstract

Abstract Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Brazil remain disproportionately affected by HIV. We estimated the potential incidence reduction by five years with increased uptake of publicly-funded, daily, oral tenofovir/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM using the Cost Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model. We used national data, local studies, and literature to inform model parameters for three cities: Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and Manaus. Results In Rio de Janero, a PrEP intervention achieving 10% uptake within 60 months would decrease incidence by 2.3% whereas achieving 60% uptake within 24 months would decrease incidence by 29.7%; results were similar for Salvador and Manaus. In sensitivity analyses, decreasing mean age at PrEP initiation from 33 to 21 years increased incidence reduction by 34%; a discontinuation rate of 25% per year decreased it by 12%. Conclusion Targeting PrEP to young MSM and minimizing discontinuation could substantially increase PrEP’s impact.

Keywords

• Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)
• HIV prevention
• Men who have sex with men
• Modeling
• Latin America and the Caribbean
• Key and vulnerable populations