Developing a concept for the economic and social management of a city with due account for the predicted industrial development

Abstract

Subject. Theoretical, methodological, and practical issues related to the economic and social management of the city with due account of the predicted values of the industrial development. Objectives. Justification of scientific and methodological provisions of a conceptual nature related to urban management and solving local social problems by forecasting the level of industrial development. Methodology. The authors put forward a hypothesis: if the level of industrial development is forecasted accurately, it is possible to plan upcoming changes in the main economic and social indicators of the municipal economy. Theoretically, the hypothesis is based on the method of logical scaling and synthesis of scientific and practical knowledge. Statistical studies were conducted using the method of econometric and financial analysis based on socio-economic indicators of industrial cities in the Southern Federal District of Russia for the period from 2013 to 2022. Forecasting for the subsequent periods is based on an applied approach to constructing estimates of the quasi-maximal likelihood of the level of industrial development, which was carried out using the theory of stochastic differential equations based on methods of probabilistic forecasting. Results and discussion. As a result of the study, it was substantiated that municipal management contributes to the production of material goods and to harmonisation of socio-economic relations between local authorities, businesses, public organisations, and individuals, which are interrelated with the level of industrial development of a city. The developed applied approach to constructing estimates of the quasi-maximal likelihood of values of socio-economic parameters makes it possible to forecast the level of industrial development of cities in the Russian Federation. Point and interval forecasts lay the foundation for planning economic and other indicators. The concept of economic and social management of administrative-territorial units was proposed. The mandatory socio-economic blocks of the concept were supplemented with the functionality of prediction modelling, which requires further discussion, critical understanding, and subsequent improvement. Future changes in local industrial policy need to be analysed and evaluated in terms of their effectiveness in the context of structural modernisation of the economic and organisational mechanism for urban and social management of the city.

Keywords

• urban economy
• management
• social sphere
• industrial development
• prediction modelling