Multi-Scenario Research on the Coupled and Coordinated Development of the Economic–Energy–Environmental (3E) System under the Reconstruction of the Power System—New Exploration Based on the “Dual Triangle” Theory

Abstract

Under the background of building a new-type power system, as the core of the energy system, the restructuring of the power system will inevitably have a linked impact on the coordinated development of the economy–energy–environment system. A “Dual Triangle” theoretical framework consisting of the “Energy Impossibility Triangle” and “Sustainable Development Triangle” was constructed in this paper. By combining historical statistical analysis with scenario predictive analysis, the historical characteristics of the “Dual Triangle” and future trends under different scenarios were analyzed, and the coupled interaction relationship of the “Dual Triangle” was also studied. Conclusions were as follows: The energy system gradually inclined towards economy and cleanliness from 2010 to 2022, and the operation status of the “Dual Triangle” was stable. A positive coupling relationship within the “Dual Triangle” in vigorously promoting renewable energy scenarios is close, which can be regarded as the preferred path for the reconstruction of the power system. The security and low-carbon phased development scenario is a development model that dynamically mitigates the challenges of the “Energy Impossibility Triangle”. Security has become the core contradiction of the “Energy Impossibility Triangle”. This paper conducts an integrated and innovative application of the “Dual Triangle” theory and provides a case basis for how to achieve the coupled interaction of the “Dual Triangle”.

Keywords

• coupled and coordinated development
• economic–energy–environmental (3E) system
• power system
• energy impossibility triangle
• dual triangle
• predictive scenario