Forecast of solar activity in 24th cycle

Abstract

For more precise definition of prognosis of 24th cycle, the peculiarities of growth of solar activity was studied in previous 23 cycles. The interest was focused on a phase of sharp increasing of activity, beginning from 20th month of cycles. The sufficiently close correlation was found between smoothed Wolf's number in the cycle maximum W_max and increment of sunspot's number on phase of activity increasing. From this analysis follows that for 24th cycle the following parameters are expected: W_max=105±11, аnd time of maximum – mean 2013.

Keywords

• solar activity cycles
• solar physics