TRENDS AND CORRELATIONS OF ROMANIAN MERCHANDISE FOREIGN TRADE FROM 2006 TO 2010. AN ECONOMETRICAL APPROACH

Abstract

The Romania’s adhesion to European Union has implied several economic and social changes with a direct impact to foreign trade. At regional level, the foreign trade in Romania has registered a growing bias of commercial exchanges with the EU member states, giving the fact that the EU has become the main commercial partner of Romania in the last few years. The period from June 2006 to June 2010 includes both the last years of economic growth in Romania and the first years of actual economic crisis. Thus, the monthly statistically data series show the time and effects of Romania’ change from a relative economic growth to recession. There are different influences upon the structure of FOB exports and CIF imports. The paper analyses the evolution of Romanian merchandise foreign trade in EU area and also with the non-members states. It is also analysed the weight as against total results of foreign trade and the evolution of FOB/CIF deficit. There is an estimation of the correlation between and the lei/euro monthly exchange rates for this period and also there are presented the influences of lei/euro exchange rate upon FOB exports and CIF imports.

Keywords

• foreign trade
• correlation
• ANOVA
• F test
• trend