ANALYZING THE ROBUST IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN INDIA: ARDL APPROACH

Abstract

This study examines the long-term effects of CO2 emissions, farm mechanization, and other control variables on agricultural production in India from 1960 to 2022. These variables include arable land, fertilizer consumption, GDP, import and export of agricultural raw materials, cereal yield (kg per hectare), and urbanization. To identify the longterm co-integrating relationship between the variables, this study used multiple types of econometric techniques, including the ARDL bound-testing methodology and Johansen co-integration procedure. A meaningful long-term cointegrating relationship between the variables is supported by the empirical findings of the ARDL bound-testing method. The long-term outcomes showed that agricultural productivity is significantly increased by mechanization, exports and imports of agricultural raw materials, and arable land. Results also showed that grain production and fertilizer use had a considerable beneficial impact on agricultural performance; however, CO2 emissions and urbanization have a significant negative impact. Therefore, these findings suggest that India's policymakers should implement more efficient measures to boost investments in agricultural R&D and farm mechanization. By assuring the nation's food security, this will increase agricultural output. To support India's efforts to achieve a sustainable environment and development, the report advises integrating climate change measures into the nation's national strategies, policies, and planning.

Keywords

• co2 emissions
• agricultural output
• export
• ardl co-integration
• economic growth
• sustainable environment