The transmission dynamics of the monkeypox virus in the presence of environmental transmission

Abstract

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This study presents a deterministic model for the environmental transmission dynamics of monkeypox (MPX) in the presence of quarantine and vaccination. The analysis of the model established three important equilibrium states namely; monkeypox-free equilibrium (MPXV-FE), infected rodent-free endemic equilibrium (IRF-EE), and coexistence equilibrium (CO-EE). The local and global stability of the equilibrium states is examined in terms of reproduction numbers. For global stability, the comparison theory is used for MPXV-FE while the Voltera-Lyapunov matrix theory is used for IRF-EE. Sensitivity analysis is performed using the Latin hypercube sampling method, and the results showed that environmental transmission parameters are the main driver of infection in the dynamics of MPX infection. This is further supported by numerical simulations to show the impact of environmental transmission on the MPX infection and also the validity of the theoretical analysis. Based on the results, it is recommended that health practitioners and policy-makers should constitute control strategies that will focus on reducing transmission and shedding of the virus in the environment while increasing the environmental decay rate of the MPXV. This will complement the quarantine and vaccination strategies in place.

Keywords

• monkeypox
• environmental transmission
• sensitivity analysis
• comparison theory
• Voltera-Lyapunov matrix theory