Forecast and Analysis of a Rainstorm Case in East China Based on the Blown-Up Theory
Tao Song,
Dongmei Xu,
Feifei Shen,
Aiqing Shu,
Lixin Song
Affiliations
Tao Song
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Dongmei Xu
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Feifei Shen
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Aiqing Shu
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Lixin Song
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Practical application has shown that the blown-up theory has great predictive ability for predicting transitional weather systems, especially catastrophic weather systems. This study applies the blown-up theory to analyze and predict a rainstorm case in Jiangsu Province of East China to explore the applicability of the blown-up theory. At the same time, a numerical simulation experiment is conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) v4.2. The numerical results are compared with the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) products. It is found that there is a deviation in the simulation for the precipitation center, and further analysis indicates that it is likely related to the position of the simulated low-level shear line. On the other hand, the blown-up analyses are consistent with the actual situation and provide additional information besides the numerical simulation results. These results indicate that the blown-up charts and V-3θ diagrams are able to predict the weather system transformation, the rainfall area, and the evolution of the rainstorm, which confirms the applicability of the blown-up theory to rainstorm forecasts. This provides an auxiliary analysis method in addition to numerical simulations for rainstorm forecasts.
