Hidden Markov Model and States Prediction of an Autonomous Wind-Diesel Complex

Abstract

The problem of assessing the reliability and analyzing the functioning of an autonomous winddiesel complex, consisting of a wind power plant, working and standby diesel generators, an inverter and a storage battery, is considered. First, a semi-Markov model of an autonomous wind-diesel complex is built, which makes it possible to calculate the stationary and temporal reliability characteristics. Then, on its basis, a hidden Markov model is developed, which is used to solve the problems of predicting and evaluating its characteristics, taking into account the given parameters and the signal vector. The results of the study are obtained in a general form and are invariant with respect to the laws of distribution of random variables describing the elements of an autonomous wind-diesel complex. They allow you to simulate the functioning of the system under various distribution laws, based on statistical data, without modifying the model itself.