Heterogeneous effects of climate change on displacement-inducing disasters

Abstract

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With an estimated 357.7 million internal displacements caused since 2008, weather-related disasters are a major driver of human mobility worldwide. As climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world, it is important to better understand how trends in weather patterns related to global warming have affected the intensity of disasters that have caused displacements. Here we combined observational and counterfactual climate data with global internal displacement records to estimate how climate change has affected precipitation and wind speeds at the time and location of floods and storms that led to internal displacements. We estimate that, on average, climate change increased precipitation and decreased wind speeds during such events by +3.7% and − 1.4%, respectively. However, the variability across events is considerable (±28.6 and ± 6.6%, respectively), highlighting the large signal of natural variability of the weather system as compared to the global warming signal. Our results caution against overstating the role of climate change in displacement-inducing disasters in the past, especially compared to socio-economic and development factors of vulnerability and adaptive capacity that determine whether weather-related hazards turn into disasters.’

Keywords

• climate change
• attribution
• internal displacement
• migration
• flood
• storm