A Hybrid Forecasting Model for Electricity Demand in Sustainable Power Systems Based on Support Vector Machine

Abstract

Renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, are increasingly contributing to electricity systems. Participants in the energy market need to understand the future electricity demand in order to plan their purchasing and selling strategies. To forecast the electricity demand, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting model. The method uses Kalman filtering to eliminate noise from the electricity demand series. After decomposing the electricity demand using an empirical model, a support vector machine optimized by a genetic algorithm is employed for prediction. The performance of the proposed forecasting model was evaluated using actual electricity demand data from the Australian energy market. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model has the best forecasting capability, with a mean absolute percentage error of 0.25%. Accuracy improved by 74% compared to the Support Vector Machine (SVM) electricity demand forecasting model, by 73% when compared to the SVM with empirical mode decomposition, and by 51% when compared to the SVM with Kalman filtering for noise reduction. Additionally, compared to existing forecasting methods, this study’s accuracy surpasses LSTM by 63%, Transformer by 47%, and LSTM-Adaboost by 36%. The simulation of and comparison with existing forecasting methods validate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid forecasting model, demonstrating its superior predictive capabilities.

Keywords

• sustainable power system
• genetic algorithm
• electricity demand forecasting
• Kalman filtering
• support vector machine