Development and Validation of a Nomogram of Persistent Pulmonary Hypertension in Adult Pretricuspid Shunts After Correction

Abstract

Background Pretricuspid shunts have been associated with poorer survival rates in patients with Eisenmenger syndrome compared with postricuspid shunts and complex lesions. However, the risk stratification for persistent pulmonary hypertension (PH) in this population remains uncertain. Methods and Results We retrospectively enrolled 103 patients with pretricuspid shunts with high total pulmonary resistance >4.5 Wood units (estimated pulmonary vascular resistance ≥3 Wood units). During a mean±SD follow‐up of 20.95±24.84 months, 32 patients developed postoperative persistent PH after shunt correction. We identified 3 significant predictors of postoperative persistent PH, including mean pulmonary artery pressure after inhaled oxygen ≥40.5 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR], 7.78 [95% CI, 2.02–30.03]; P<0.01), total pulmonary resistance after inhaled oxygen ≥6.5 Wood units (estimated pulmonary vascular resistance ≥5 Wood units; OR, 12.23 [95% CI, 2.12–70.46]; P<0.01), and artery oxygen saturation at rest <95% (OR, 3.34 [95% CI, 1.07–10.44]; P=0.04). We established the prediction model with the C‐statistics of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.77–0.93; P<0.01), and the C‐statistic was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80–0.86) after bootstrapping 10 000 times with a good performance of the nomogram calibration curve for predicting persistent PH. Conclusions Our study presents a multivariable risk stratification model for persistent PH after shunt correction in adults with pretricuspid shunts. This model, based on 3 hemodynamic predictors after inhaled oxygen, may assist in identifying individuals at higher risk of persistent PH after shunt correction.

Keywords

• heart defects
• predict
• pulmonary hypertension
• shunts
• surgical repair