Development and validation of an institutional nomogram for aiding aneurysm rupture risk stratification

Abstract

Abstract Rupture risk stratification is critical for incidentally detected intracranial aneurysms. Here we developed and validated an institutional nomogram to solve this issue. We reviewed the imaging and clinical databases for aneurysms from January 2015 to September 2018. Aneurysms were reconstructed and morphological features were extracted by the Pyradiomics in python. Multiple logistic regression was performed to develop the nomogram. The consistency of the nomogram predicted rupture risks and PHASES scores was assessed. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA). 719 aneurysms were enrolled in this study. For each aneurysm, twelve morphological and nine clinical features were obtained. After logistic regression, seven features were enrolled in the nomogram, which were SurfaceVolumeRatio, Flatness, Age, Hyperlipemia, Smoker, Multiple aneurysms, and Location of the aneurysm. The nomogram had a positive and close correlation with PHASES score in predicting aneurysm rupture risks. AUCs of the nomogram in discriminating aneurysm rupture status was 0.837 in a separate testing set. The calibration curves fitted well and DCA demonstrated positive net benefits of the nomogram in guiding clinical decisions. In conclusion, Pyradiomics derived morphological features based institutional nomogram was useful for aneurysm rupture risk stratification.