Forecasting Delivery Pattern through Floating Car Data: Empirical Evidence

Abstract

This paper investigates the opportunities offered by floating car data (FCD) to infer delivering activities. A discrete trip-chain order model (within the random utility theory) for light goods vehicles (laden weight less than 3.5 tons) is hence proposed, which characterizes delivery tours in terms of the number of stops/deliveries performed. Thus, the main goal of the study is to calibrate a discrete choice model to estimate the number of stops/deliveries per tour by using FCD, which can be incorporated in a planning procedure for obtaining a preliminary assessment of parking demand. The data used refer to light goods vehicles operating in the Veneto region. The database contains more than 8000 tours undertaken in 60 working days. Satisfactory results have been obtained in terms of tour estimation and model transferability.

Keywords

• floating car data (FCD)
• tour production
• tour modelling
• origin-destination matrix
• city logistics
• trip-chain order