Model of determination and forecasting of prices of forest products using the example of pulp

Abstract

The paper presents the problems of the development of the Russian forest complex at the present stage, which are confirmed by a decrease in the volume of production and export of forest products. Fluctuations in global and domestic prices for forest products create real problems of sustainable and effective development of the forest complex. Many factors determine the dynamics of timber prices and affect various components of price dynamics. As the correlation analysis showed, the main influence on the trend component of pulp prices on the world market and the Chinese market is exerted by: the change in GDP per capita as a percentage, the inflation rate and the growth rate of investments. To determine the trend in pulp prices for the Chinese market, we used official data from GDP growth forecasts. Highlighting the determinants of development and forecasting, taking into account the main factor of gross product, the trend-cyclical model of pulp prices allows us to anticipate natural deviations in market development, plan the cost of forest products, the cost of exporting forest materials, which is important for the financial situation of forestry enterprises. In general, the developed methodological approach is applicable to other types of forest products, and the results of the study can be used by enterprises, organizations of the forest complex when studying market conditions and planning activities for various periods. At the level of state bodies, forecast models allow planning the cost of export-import turnover of forest materials, production of products by forestry enterprises.