Spatial analyses of typhoid fever in Jiangsu province, People’s Republic of China

Abstract

An analysis of the geographical distribution of typhoid incidence rates, based on various statistical approaches such as trend surface, spatial autocorrelation, spatial correlation and spatial regression, was carried out at the county level in Jiangsu province, People’s Republic of China. Temperature, moisture content, proximity to water bodies and the normalized difference vegetation index in the autumn were the four underlying factors found to contribute the most to the development of the epidemic. Typhoid infection was most severe in the south-eastern region of Jiangsu and a significant hotspot with high positive autocorrelation was detected in Taicang county in the south-east of the province. To improve the typhoid situation, intervention efforts should be concentrated in the south-eastern region of the province, targeting the hotspot and include reduction of lake pollution.

Keywords

• geographical information systems, typhoid fever, trend surface analysis, spatial analysis, spatial regression, People’s Republic of China.