Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration
Margarita Lampo,
Juan V. Hernández-Villena,
Jaime Cascante,
María F. Vincenti-González,
David A. Forero-Peña,
Maikell J. Segovia,
Katie Hampson,
Julio Castro,
Maria Eugenia Grillet
Affiliations
Margarita Lampo
Academia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales, Palacio de las Academias, Av. Universidad, Caracas 1030, Venezuela
Juan V. Hernández-Villena
Laboratorio de Biología de Vectores y Parásitos, Instituto de Zoología y Ecología Tropical, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas 1058, Venezuela
Jaime Cascante
Grupo de Biología Matemática y Computacional, Departamento de Ingeniería Biomédica, Universidad de Los Andes, Bogotá 111711, Colombia
María F. Vincenti-González
Department of Medical Microbiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands
David A. Forero-Peña
Biomedical Research and Therapeutic Vaccines Institute, Ciudad Bolívar 8001, Venezuela
Maikell J. Segovia
Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas 1058, Venezuela
Katie Hampson
Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
Julio Castro
Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas 1058, Venezuela
Maria Eugenia Grillet
Academia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales, Palacio de las Academias, Av. Universidad, Caracas 1030, Venezuela
Testing and isolation have been crucial for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Venezuela has one of the weakest testing infrastructures in Latin America and the low number of reported cases in the country has been attributed to substantial underreporting. However, the Venezuelan epidemic seems to have lagged behind other countries in the region, with most cases occurring within the capital region and four border states. Here, we describe the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 in Venezuela and its relation to the population mobility, migration patterns, non-pharmaceutical interventions and fuel availability that impact population movement. Using a metapopulation model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, we explore how movement patterns could have driven the observed distribution of cases. Low within-country connectivity most likely delayed the onset of the epidemic in most states, except for those bordering Colombia and Brazil, where high immigration seeded outbreaks. NPIs slowed early epidemic growth and subsequent fuel shortages appeared to be responsible for limiting the spread of COVID-19 across the country.
