Simulation and optimization of Lar Dam reservoir storage under climate change conditions

Abstract

In this research, A 15-year impact of climate change in Lar Dam has been investigated. The results showed that in the case of climate change under three scenarios, Tmax and the Tmin have increased by 5, 5.23, 6.2% and 3.5, 5.6, 5.17%, respectively, and the amount of precipitation increased by 8.55, 9.5, 13%, respectively. Also, the highest rainfall will be in 2031 and the lowest will be in 2036. Based on the intermediate state of the scenarios, the amount of runoff was obtained and the reliability index was calculated according to the upstream runoff and downstream needs for drinking, agriculture, and environment. The simulation was also performed in the WEAP model. The findings showed that the highest reliability was 86.60% of the agriculture, and by using the optimization of a honey badger and Harmony Search Algorithm, it was found that the reliability is approximately 5.06 and 1.73% higher than the simulation. In comparison with the optimization algorithms, due to the smaller value of the objective function of the HBA and the greater reliability of it, the result showed that performance of this algorithm was better and it has a faster calculation. HIGHLIGHT These methods have been used for the first time. Forecasts are based on the impact of climatic parameters on the future situation and the latest algorithm. The predicted data have been generated based on real daily data, and using validation and re-calibration of the model, the results have been obtained. Optimization was done using several meta-heuristic algorithms and the definition of the objective function.;

Keywords

• climate change
• climate scenarios
• harmony search algorithm
• honey badger algorithm
• weap model