An Efficient COVID-19 Mortality Risk Prediction Model Using Deep Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique and Convolution Neural Networks

Abstract

The COVID-19 virus has made a huge impact on people’s lives ever since the outbreak happened in December 2019. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 virus has not completely vanished from the world yet, and thus, global agitation is still increasing with mutations and variants of the same. Early diagnosis is the best way to decline the mortality risk associated with it. This urges the necessity of developing new computational approaches that can analyze a large dataset and predict the disease in time. Currently, automated virus diagnosis is a major area of research for accurate and timely predictions. Artificial intelligent (AI)-based techniques such as machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) can be deployed for this purpose. In this, compared to traditional machine learning techniques, deep Learning approaches show prominent results. Yet it still requires optimization in terms of complex space problems. To address this issue, the proposed method combines deep learning predictive models such as convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), auto-encoder (AE), cross-validation (CV), and synthetic minority oversampling techniques (SMOTE). This method proposes six different combinations of deep learning forecasting models such as CV-CNN, CV-LSTM+CNN, IMG-CNN, AE+CV-CNN, SMOTE-CV-LSTM, and SMOTE-CV-CNN. The performance of each model is evaluated using various metrics on the standard dataset that is approved by The Montefiore Medical Center/Albert Einstein College of Medicine Institutional Review Board. The experimental results show that the SMOTE-CV-CNN model outperforms the other models by achieving an accuracy of 98.29%. Moreover, the proposed SMOTE-CV-CNN model has been compared to existing mortality risk prediction methods based on both machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL), and has demonstrated superior accuracy. Based on the experimental analysis, it can be inferred that the proposed SMOTE-CV-CNN model has the ability to effectively predict mortality related to COVID-19.

Keywords

• artificial intelligence
• auto-encoder
• convolutional neural network
• cross-validation
• long short-term memory
• synthetic minority