Socio-political dynamics in clean energy transition

Abstract

A rapid and effective transition to low-carbon energy production is essential to limit climate change impacts. While the scientific community has mostly focused on research and development and techno-economic aspects, quantifying the role of public acceptability and policy in shaping emission trajectories has been much more elusive. This study investigates the coupled dynamics of nonlinear socio-political acceptance and anthropogenic CO _2 emissions, with implications for climate policies and clean energy investments. Our findings show that a top-down policy approach alone may not be sufficient for effective emission cuts, highlighting the need for a multi-level strategy that combines top-down and bottom-up approaches. Additionally, opinion polarization can trigger detrimental CO _2 emission oscillations when governments decide to take heavy-handed policy interventions in highly polarized socio-political systems. Delayed perception of climate change damage or abrupt reactions to extreme weather events may also significantly affect emission reduction efforts, although in the opposite direction. Integrating these socio-political dynamics into climate models can enhance our understanding of the complex interplay between human and natural systems, enabling the development of more effective and resilient mitigation strategies.

Keywords

• climate change
• opinion dynamics
• emission cuts
• socio-political feedback
• coupled human-natural systems