Tree growth at the end of the 21st century - the extreme years 2018/19 as template for future growth conditions

Abstract

Using measurements from high resolution monitoring of radial tree-growth we present new data of the growth reactions of four widespread broadleaved tree-species to the combined European drought years 2018 and 2019. We can show that, in contrast to field crops, trees could make better use of the winter soil moisture storage in 2018 which buffered them from severe drought stress and growth depressions in this year. Nevertheless, legacy effects of the 2018 drought accompanied by sustained low soil moisture conditions (missing recharge in winter) and again higher than average temperatures and low precipitation in spring/summer 2019 have resulted in severe growth reductions for all studied tree-species in this year. This highlights the pivotal role of soil water recharge in winter. Although short term resistance to hot summers can be high if sufficient winter precipitations buffers forest stands from drought damage, legacy effects will strongly impact tree growth in subsequent years if the drought persists. The two years 2018 and 2019 are extreme with regard to historical instrumental data but, according to regional climate models, resemble rather normal conditions of the climate in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore the observed strongly reduced growth rates can provide an outlook on future forest growth potential in northern Central Europe and beyond.

Keywords

• drought
• tree-growth
• forests
• dendrometer