Rejection versus forceful imposition during elections: the ‘I have come to stay’ mindset of the incumbent

Abstract

Abstract Political actors may resort to drastic measures, including election-related violence, to pursue electoral victory. While free and fair elections are fundamental to any democratic system, electoral violence threatens the integrity of this process and poses a serious challenge to democracy. Such violence manifests in various forms, including harassment, intimidation, assassination, and threats. It remains prevalent as a strategic tool for political figures struggling for power. This paper contends that incumbents, particularly unpopular ones, frequently use electoral violence to retain power, viewing it as a necessary means to secure victory. Focusing on Nigeria’s 2019 elections, this study examines the electoral violence reportedly perpetrated under the Buhari administration. Drawing on data from respected international and local election-monitoring groups, the ACLED dataset, and surveys from Afrobarometer, the study finds that when public dissatisfaction and mistrust in government are widespread, incumbents may increasingly resort to electoral violence to ensure regime continuity. The paper concludes with an analysis of the impacts of electoral violence on democracy, emphasizing how it not only obstructs democratic processes but also gradually erodes democracy.