A Novel Load Forecasting Approach Based on Smart Meter Data Using Advance Preprocessing and Hybrid Deep Learning

Abstract

Short-term load forecasting models play a critical role in distribution companies in making effective decisions in their planning and scheduling for production and load balancing. Unlike aggregated load forecasting at the distribution level or substations, forecasting load profiles of many end-users at the customer-level, thanks to smart meters, is a complicated problem due to the high variability and uncertainty of load consumptions as well as customer privacy issues. In terms of customers’ short-term load forecasting, these models include a high level of nonlinearity between input data and output predictions, demanding more robustness, higher prediction accuracy, and generalizability. In this paper, we develop an advanced preprocessing technique coupled with a hybrid sequential learning-based energy forecasting model that employs a convolution neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BLSTM) within a unified framework for accurate energy consumption prediction. The energy consumption outliers and feature clustering are extracted at the advanced preprocessing stage. The novel hybrid deep learning approach based on data features coding and decoding is implemented in the prediction stage. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real-world datasets in Turkey, and the results outperformed the traditional prediction models compared in this paper.

Keywords

• artificial neural network
• consumption patterns
• load estimation
• recurrent neural network
• smart meter