Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment (2016-05-01)

Prediction of Land Use Change Based on Markov and GM(1,1) Models

  • SUN Yi-yang ,
  • LI Yi-xue ,
  • JIANG Huai-long ,
  • ZHOU Ying-xue

DOI
https://doi.org/10.13254/j.jare.2015.0297
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 33, no. 3
pp. 289 – 296

Abstract

Read online

In order to explore the law of land use change in Laiwu City, Markov and GM(1,1) were respectively employed in the prediction of land use change in Laiwu from 2015 to 2050, after which the results were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that:(1)The variational trends of all kinds of land use change predicted by the two models were consistent and the goodness of fit of the predictive value in corresponding years in the near future was high, illustrating that the predicted results in the near future were credible and the trend predicted in mid long term could be used as reference. (2)The cultivated land would remanin almost no change from 2015 to 2020, and then gradually decreaseed in a small range from 2020 to 2050. The garden, the woodland, the grassland always reducing and the decreare range of the grassland was the largest. The urban village and industrial and mining land, the transportation land would be continuously increased and the range of urban village and industrial and mining land was the largest. The water and water conservancy facilities land and the other land would be always reduced in a very small range. It could be concluded that the results predicted by the two models in the near future were credible and could provide scientific basis for land use planning of Laiwu, while the method could provide reference for the prediction of land use change.

Keywords