A Methodology for Macro-Economic Research on Social Tension: Analysis, Evaluation, Diagnostics

Abstract

The publication is aimed at researching social tensions in the European Union on the basis of the application of economic-mathematical modeling at the macro-economic level. The publication discloses theoretical approaches to such phenomenon as social tension at the macro-level, forms an indicative space, analyzes the influence factors, the mechanism of formation, and stages of development. The current macro-economic status of social tensions in the EU countries is researched. A comprehensive scheme for evaluation and analysis of social tensions in the EU countries is developed, containing implementation of the four main stages according to the selected factors-indices. A social tension index for the EU countries is formed, the extent of the influence of factors on the social tension index based on methods of correlation and regression analysis is identified. A model of evaluation of the level of social tension has been built to identify regularities of development over a certain period of development. In order to identify groups of countries with similar factors of social tension and to detail the resulting integrated scale, a model has been developed to classify countries, applying the Ward’s method, by the level of social tension using Gap-statistics and k-averages. Based on the use of the neural network learning algorithm, a group of countries in which also belongs Ukraine has been found, showing relation to the factors of social tension formation. The function of forecast provisioned by the functional of neural network is used, according to which Ukraine falls into a cluster with a high level of social tension, that is, has a similar background for functioning of the mechanism of social tension with such countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey and Montenegro. Thus, the proposed methodology for macro-economic research on the level of social tension is an effective tool for integrated diagnostics, which will allow to focus on the development of adequate and effective strategies for prevention of increase in social tensions and to minimize the threats associated with it in a timely manner.

Keywords

• social tension
• modeling
• mechanism
• indicator
• regression
• correlation
• cluster analysis
• neural network