Temporal Dynamics of Uncertainty Cause Anxiety and Avoidance

Abstract

Alfred Hitchcock, film director and “Master of Suspense,” observed that terror is not driven by a negative event, but “only in the anticipation of it.” This observation is not restricted to the movies: Anxiety builds when we anticipate uncertain negative events, and heightened reactivity during uncertain threat anticipation is a transdiagnostic marker of anxiety (Grupe & Nitschke, 2013; Holley & Fox, 2022; Hur et al., 2020; Krain et al., 2008; Simmons et al., 2008; Yassa et al., 2012). Here, we manipulate the temporal dynamics of an uncertain threat to demonstrate how the evolving expectation of threat can lead people to forgo rewards and experience fear/anxiety. Specifically, we show that increased “hazard rate,” which can build during periods of uncertainty, promotes a tendency to avoid threatening contexts while increasing fear/anxiety. These results provide insight into why the anticipation of temporally uncertain threats elicits fear/anxiety, and reframe the underlying causes of related psychopathology.

Keywords

• fear
• anxiety
• uncertainty
• threat processing
• computational modeling