The transformation and driving factors of multi-linkage embodied carbon emission in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Abstract

As the largest river in Asia with masses of population and industries along the riverside, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) produces tremendous carbon emissions. However, trade-induced environmental impacts of such a megaregion with multiple geographic linkages are always neglected in the river’s environmental policies, even as it is expected to change dynamically in the context of a transition period. By incorporating the megaregion scale into the multiregional input and output framework, our main findings are as follows: (1) The YREB region transformed from a traditional river basin to a comprehensive consumption-oriented economic belt. The proportions of the YREB region’s embodied emissions in local and international linkages are decreasing, while the proportions of that in cross reach and interregional linkages are increasing; (2) The YREB region exacerbates the gap between the north and the south by importing carbon emissions from the carbon-intensive north and exporting to the south with low emission intensity; (3) The Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) effect held in 2002 in the cross reach linkage, while disappeared in 2012 due to changes in development and consumption patterns.Through structural decomposition analysis, this study detects driving factors of embodied emissions changes in multi linkages, and provides coordinating mitigation actions for the environmental governance of large river basins with comprehensive economic linkages.

Keywords

• Multiregional input and output analysis
• Structural decomposition analysis
• Pollution haven hypothesis
• Consumption structure
• River basin environmental coordination